Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Heineken intrinsic value calculation. Price a bit frothy?

SECTOR: [PASS] HEINEKEN is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales of €20 922 million, based on 2015 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €5 914m/€8 362m of 0.7 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €13 808 million, while the net current assets are €-2 448 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 110% passes the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 4% (using the average over 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HEINEKEN has a Graham number of (15 x €3,3 EPS x 1,5 x €25 Book Value) = €43 and fails this test.

Dividend: 1,50 E / 80 E = 2% and increasing.

Heineken is a Money Making Machine that turns a commodity, beer, into a strong brand. The price the moment though seems high, comparable to comparable to the peaks of 2002 and 2007. Mr. Market seems to be pricing in a possible takeover bid, but Heineken's controlling family has said they are not interested in selling...

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